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Progressive Corporation — Fixed Income Investor Update – Q1 2025 (company IR deck)
Progressive Corporation (PGR) · 17 slides · Filed Oct 21, 2026
Every slide of this earnings presentation, with the text as published. Open the original deck ↗ · All PGR deck slides
Slide 1 — Investor
Fixed Income Investor Update Published 6/17/2025 2025 Q1 Investor Relations
Slide 2 — Information Relevant to this Presentation
Information Relevant to this Presentation Investors are cautioned that certain statements in this presentation are not based upon historical fact are forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements often use words such as “estimate,” “expect,” “intend,” “plan,” “believe,” “goal,” “target,” “anticipate,” “will,” “could,” “likely,” “may,” “should,” and other words and terms of similar meaning, or are tied to future periods, in connection with a discussion of future operating or financial performance. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance, are based on current expectations and projections about future events, and are subject to certain risks, assumptions and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed herein. These risks and uncertainties include, without limitation, uncertainties related to: • our ability to underwrite and price risks accurately and to charge adequate rates to policyholders; • our ability to establish accurate loss reserves; • the impact of severe weather, other catastrophe events, and climate change; • the effectiveness of our reinsurance programs and the continued availability of reinsurance and performance by reinsurers; • the secure and uninterrupted operation of the systems, facilities, and business functions and the operation of various third-party systems that are critical to our business; • the impacts of a security breach or other attack involving our technology systems or the systems of one or more of our vendors; • our ability to maintain a recognized and trusted brand and reputation; • whether we innovate effectively and respond to our competitors’ initiatives; • whether we effectively manage complexity as we develop and deliver products and customer experiences; • the highly competitive nature of property-casualty insurance markets; • whether we adjust claims accurately; • compliance with complex and changing laws and regulations; • the impact of misconduct or fraudulent acts by employees, agents, and third parties to our business and/or exposure to regulatory assessments; • our ability to attract, develop, and retain talent and maintain appropriate staffing levels; • litigation challenging our business practices, and those of our competitors and other companies; • the success of our business strategy and efforts to acquire or develop new products or enter into new areas of business and our ability to navigate the related risks; • how intellectual property rights affect our competitiveness and our business operations; • the success of our development and use of new technology and our ability to navigate the related risks; • the performance of our fixed-income and equity investment portfolios; • the impact on our investment returns and strategies from regulations and societal pressures relating to environmental, social, governance and other public policy matters; • our continued ability to access our cash accounts and/or convert investments into cash on favorable terms; • the impact if one or more parties with which we enter into significant contracts or transact business fail to perform; • legal restrictions on our insurance subsidiaries’ ability to pay dividends to The Progressive Corporation; • our ability to obtain capital when necessary to support our business, our financial condition, and potential growth; • evaluations and ratings by credit rating and other rating agencies; • the variable nature of our common share dividend policy; • whether our investments in certain tax-advantaged projects generate the anticipated returns; • the impact from not managing to short-term earnings expectations in light of our goal to maximize the long-term value of the enterprise; • the impacts of epidemics, pandemics, or other widespread health risks; and • other matters described from time to time in our releases and publications, and in our periodic reports and other documents filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, including, without limitation, the Risk Factors section of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ending December 31, 2024. Any forward-looking statements are made only as of the date presented. Except as required by applicable law, we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or developments or otherwise. In addition, investors should be aware that accounting principles generally accepted in the United States prescribe when a company may reserve for particular risks, including litigation exposures. Accordingly, results for a given reporting period could be significantly affected if and when we establish reserves for one or more contingencies. Also, our regular reserve reviews may result in adjustments of varying magnitude as additional information regarding claims activity becomes known. Reported results, therefore, may be volatile in certain accounting periods. Safe Harbor Statement Under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 2
Slide 3 — Information Relevant to this Presentation
Information Relevant to this Presentation Progressive disseminates information to the public about Progressive, its products, services and other matters through various outlets in order to achieve broad, non-exclusionary distribution of information to the public. These outlets include its website (progressive.com) and its investor relations website (investors.progressive.com). We encourage investors and others to review the information Progressive makes public through these outlets, as such information distributed through these outlets may be considered to be material information. Regulation FD Disclosure Outlets Additional Information Additional information can also be found in Progressive’s annual report on Form 10-K for the year ending December 31, 2024, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. All information, statements, and projections in this presentation speak only as of the date of this presentation. Progressive assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking or other information included in this presentation, whether as a result of new information, future developments or events or otherwise. 3
Slide 4 — Key company highlights
LEADING P&C INSURANCE COMPANY 2nd largest writer of U.S. private passenger auto insurance based on 2024 premiums written Largest writer of U.S. commercial auto insurance based on 2024 premiums written Market share leader in motorcycle and boat insurance and one of the largest providers of RV insurance A growing homeowners business which has expanded the addressable market for personal insurance Key company highlights 4 INVESTOR RELATIONS Q1 2025 GROWING, CONSISTENTLY PROFITABLE FRANCHISE 92.9% five-year average companywide annual combined ratio and a goal to not exceed an aggregate 96% combined ratio in any calendar year(3) Companywide annual combined ratios at or below a 96% every year for more than 20 years Strong long-term growth—15% net premiums written CAGR for ‘19-’24(2) CAPITAL Debt to capitalization of 19.2% and a policy of at or below 30%(1) We believe we are well-capitalized to support growth We build our reinsurance program to manage the impact of catastrophes on our group combined ratio and shareholder’s equity at certain confidence intervals $29.6bn in statutory surplus excluding capital in non-insurance entity(1) HIGH QUALITY INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO Investment portfolio comprised of 96% fixed income and 4% common equities(1) Fixed income portfolio ~99% investment grade(1) LIQUIDITY Subsidiary dividend capacity of $7.02bn without regulatory approval(2) $3.5bn in non-insurance entity(1) 56% of portfolio in short-term investments or U.S. Treasuries(1) TR4 quarter operating cash flow of $16bn(1) (1) as of quarter end 3/2025 (2) as of year end 2024 (3) as of year end 2023
Slide 5 — Become consumers’, agents’, and business
OUR VISION Become consumers’, agents’, and business owners’ #1 destination for insurance and other financial needs 5
Slide 6 — Progressive’s
Progressive’s four strategic pillars People and Culture Ensuring that our people and culture collectively remain our most powerful source of competitive advantage. Broad Needs Meeting the broader needs of our customers throughout their lifetimes. Leading Brand Maintaining a leading brand recognized for innovative offerings and supported by experiences that instill confidence. Competitive Pricing Offering competitive prices driven by industry-leading segmentation, claims accuracy, and operational efficiency. 6
Slide 7 — Our financial performance is guided by our objectives and
PROFITABILITY Our most important goal is for our insurance subsidiaries to produce an aggregate calendar year underwriting profit of at least 4% Our financial performance is guided by our objectives and financial policies 7 INVESTOR RELATIONS Q1 2025 GROWTH Our goal is to grow as fast as possible, constrained only by our profitability objective and our ability to provide high- quality customer service OPERATING Maintain pricing and reserving discipline INVESTING Maintain a liquid, diversified, high-quality investment portfolio FINANCING Maintain sufficient capital to support our business Senior debt ratings A (Stable) A2 (Stable) A+ (Stable) Objectives Financial Polices Moody’s
Slide 8 — Who we are
Who we are INVESTOR RELATIONS Q1 2025 SELECTED METRICS ($ IN BILLIONS) TOTAL CAPITAL(1) $35.8 BOOK VALUE CAGR(3) 15.8% TOTAL REVENUE(4) $78.5 DEBT-TO-TOTAL CAPITAL(1) 19.2% (1) Based on data as of 3/31/2025 (Q1’25) (2) Based on available industry data (3) 5-year as of quarter end 3/2025 (4) Prior four quarters ending 3/31/2025 Progressive is committed to becoming consumers’, agents’, and business owners’ #1 destination for insurance and other financial needs by providing competitive rates and innovative products and services that meet customers’ needs throughout their lifetimes, including superior phone, mobile app, online, and in-person customer service, and best-in- class, 24-hour claims service. 36.3 million policies in force(1) through all 50 states and Washington D.C. Our policies are sold at >40,000 independent insurance agencies and the direct distribution channel One of the country’s largest insurance carriers, the largest seller of motorcycle policies, the market leader in commercial auto insurance, and one of the top 15 property carriers(2) Growing, profitable franchise—able to achieve a high rate of premiums written and policy-in-force growth at or below an overall 96% calendar year combined ratio Net written premium by segment (1) 8 Vehicles 79% Commercial Lines 18% Property 3%
Slide 9 — History of
History of outperforming the market in personal auto Source: SNL Market Intelligence INVESTOR RELATIONS Q1 2025 Margin discipline has been maintained while growing faster than the industry 5-yr DWP CAGR 9 Progressive Industry Total -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 92% 94% 96% 98% 100% 102% 104% 106% 108% 110% 112% 5-yr direct combined ratio Top 10 personal auto carriers 5 years ending 12/2023
Slide 10 — Progressive is the
Progressive is the largest, most profitable commercial auto carrier(1) INVESTOR RELATIONS Q1 2025 Growth has been achieved with combined ratios better than the industry Largest writer of trucks in the U.S.(2) (1) Among top 10 carriers, 5 years ending 12/2023 Source: SNL Market Intelligence (2) No. 1 truck insurer from S&P Global Market Intelligence 2023 national written premium data. Truck is classified as all For Hire Specialty (FHS) vehicles, all For Hire Transportation (FHT) vehicles, and all vehicles with a Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW) greater than 16,000 lbs. for Tow, Contractors, and Business Auto. All data in chart is using statutory methods of accounting 5-yr DWP CAGR 10 Industry Total Progressive -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 5-yr direct combined ratio Top 10 commercial auto carriers 5 years ending 12/2023
Slide 11 — We have entered 2025
We have entered 2025 with excellent loss ratios Favorable frequency trends and moderate severity trends have led to strong profitability in the last several quarters INVESTOR RELATIONS Q1 2025 Source: SNL Market Intelligence 11 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% Quarterly personal auto direct loss ratio Progressive Top 10 (exPGR) Industry(exPGR)
Slide 12 — We maintain a high-quality investment portfolio
12 INVESTOR RELATIONS Q1 2025 We maintain a high-quality investment portfolio Portfolio constraints ensure balance sheet protection Group 1 assets no more than 25% of portfolio - Includes equities, non-investment grade bonds, preferred stocks* - Q1 2025 concentration at 5% Weighted average portfolio rating of at least A+ - Individual bond ratings will be higher and lower - Q1 2025 weighted average portfolio credit rating at AA- Interest rate duration between 1.5-5 years - Determines how much interest rate risk we can take in the portfolio - Q1 2025 duration at 3.4 years Concentration limits (other than U.S. Treasury notes) - Municipal state general obligation bonds: 6.0% of shareholders' equity - Investment grade bonds: 2.5% of shareholders' equity - Non-investment grade bonds/preferred stock: 1.25% of shareholders' equity - All concentration constraints met as of Q1 2025 Progressive Capital Management's specific mandates: 2 3 1 Protect the balance sheet Achieve a strong, risk-adjusted total return Support the operating business in its future endeavors *Full definitions available in 2024 Form 10-K 12
Slide 13 — We maintain a strong and conservative capital position
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q1 2025 Book value ($ billions) We maintain a strong and conservative capital position Our goal is to generally maintain a maximum 30% debt-to-total capital at book value 13 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Q1'2025 Common Equity Senior Debt Debt/Capital Ratio
Slide 14 — Our Property
Our Property Reinsurance Program is designed to reduce overall risk while protecting capital from the costs associated with catastrophes Reinsurance Program - Capacity has been placed in single- and multi-year agreements - Occurrence program includes coverage for reinstatement premiums for layers with reinstatements - Cost of reinsurance reflected in our insurance rates, where allowable PROGRESSIVE REINSURANCE REVIEW Program design as of 3/31/2025 Aggregate 14 INVESTOR RELATIONS Q1 2025 Property catastrophe per occurrence 0.2bn ~2.1bn Catastrophe bonds Reinsurance agreements Reinsurance agreements Retention Est. Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund Reinsurance agreements ex. named storms $75M of limit 550M 450M 475M 525M Retention Reinsurance agreements Retention Reinsurance agreements & catastrophe bonds inc. named storms $100M of limit 625M 525M Reinsurance agreements & catastrophe bonds Modeled aggregate reinsurance agreements SCS events only $15M of limit 705M 665M Occurrence
Slide 15 — We view our future through a Three Horizons Framework
We view our future through a Three Horizons Framework REVENUE TIME TO BOTTOM-LINE CONTRIBUTION HORIZON 1: EXECUTE Continue growing our core revenue (NWP) in our Personal and Commercial Auto, Special Lines and Property business. HORIZON 2: EXPAND Invest in new products and services that are adjacent to our core businesses, within the property and casualty segment. HORIZON 3: EXPLORE Research, invest, and innovate beyond our property and casualty segment, and explore financial services. 01 02 03 Progressive growth strategy INVESTOR RELATIONS Q1 2025 Source: SNL Market Intelligence 15
Slide 16 — Sustainability is an integral
Sustainability is an integral part of our business GOVERNANCE RATING ESG RATING 66TH PERCENTILE A 2.1 LOW RISK RATING 19.5 3 LOWER RISK RATING C Overall ratings above industry average by MSCI, Sustainalytics, and ISS Data as of 3/2025 Published Annually Contains indices to SASB and TCFD View the 2023 Corporate Sustainability Report 16 INVESTOR RELATIONS Q1 2025
Slide 17 — Thank you
INVESTOR RELATIONS Q1 2025 Thank you